S&P Global: Mining Sector Sees Mixed Q1, Next Calls for Copper, Battery
As the global energy transition accelerates, the mining sector is increasingly navigating a complex landscape of shifting demand, volatile prices and growing sustainability priorities.
During an S&P Global webinar on the state of the mining industry in Q1, analysts highlighted renewable power development and mine-site electrification as key sustainability drivers shaping the future of resource extraction.
Copper, a key component of the energy shift, remains a focal point, with average prices holding at US$9,412 per metric ton in the first quarter, though forecasts suggest a slight decline to US$9,317 by year end.
Meanwhile, the battery metals space continues to feel the squeeze.
Lithium prices slumped to US$9,000 per metric ton, leaving an estimated 27 percent of producers operating at a loss, according to S&P. Cobalt held above US$14 per pound, bolstered by the Democratic Republic of Congo’s export ban.
Nickel, driven by surging Indonesian output, is forecast to fall to US$15,730 per metric ton.
The webinar also touched on broader sector dynamics, including ongoing trade tensions, subdued financing activity and an uptick in M&A as companies reposition for long-term growth amid tightening supply and geopolitical uncertainty.
Copper supply disrupted, green demand bolstered
As mentioned, copper prices are expected to dip slightly to US$9,317 by year end.
While positive drivers like a weaker US dollar and resilient Chinese demand are offering some support, refined production cuts, bad weather in Chile and smelter challenges have added pressure to the global supply chain.
Notably, production disruptions in Chile — including a national blackout and Glencore’s (LSE:GLEN,OTC Pink:GLCNF) partial suspension at Altonorte — along with declining US consumer confidence, have led S&P to revise its US refined copper demand growth forecast down to just 1.5 percent for the year. Meanwhile, tightness in the concentrate market has sent spot treatment charges to record lows, amplifying strain on smelter margins.
“(A) developing demand driver for copper is the increasing demand from the green energy transition,” said Naditha Manubag, associate research analyst, metals and mining research, at S&P Global Commodity Insights.
“Despite the intensifying US-China trade disputes, copper demand in China has shown resilience, with copper concentrate imports growing by 10 percent in Q1 and cathode imports increasing month-over-month.”
Lithium, cobalt and graphite markets under pressure
In contrast, the battery metals space continues to reel from oversupply and weak pricing. Lithium carbonate CIF Asia dropped to just US$9,000, the lowest level seen since 2021.
“Overcapacity will continue to limit lithium prices until the next decade,” said Manubag. “With this, we have lowered the lithium carbonate CIF Asia price in 2025 to US$9,031. And…
