Bets against SpaceX grow to 32% of float as Elon Musk warns short sellers won't survive

Elon Musk warned that investors betting against SpaceX have little chance of survival — even as short sellers boosted their wagers against the company to roughly 32% of its publicly tradable shares ahead of several key catalysts.

About 206 million SpaceX shares are now sold short, representing roughly 32% of the company’s publicly tradable float and about $25 billion in notional bearish bets, according to estimates from S3 Partners. That’s up from about 185 million shares, or 29% of the float, just last week, and marks a dramatic increase from an estimated 40 million shares, or roughly 5% to 7% of the float, about a month ago.

“We continue to see short sellers adding exposure ahead of several key upcoming catalysts, including the company’s first earnings report as a public company and subsequent lock-up expirations,” Matthew Unterman, head of research at S3, told CNBC.

Musk responded to the growing short interest in a post on X, predicting investors betting against the company would ultimately lose.

“The survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low,” Musk wrote. “I said SpaceX will be worth more than Earth if we achieve our goals. Obviously true.”

SpaceX confirmed Tuesday that it will release its first quarterly earnings report as a public company after U.S. markets close on Aug. 4. The results will give investors their first detailed look at the company’s performance since its initial public offering and could provide a fresh test for both bulls and short sellers.

The growing bearish position comes as investors weigh SpaceX’s long-term prospects against its valuation and the prospect of additional shares becoming available after lock-up restrictions expire. Bulls point to the company’s leadership in launch services, Starlink’s expansion and its artificial intelligence ambitions, while skeptics have questioned how much future growth is already reflected in the stock.

SpaceX shares rose about 4% Tuesday, on pace to snap a seven-session losing streak after analysts at Macquarie reiterated their outperform rating and urged investors to buy the recent weakness. The stock climbed to around $125, though it remains below its $135 initial public offering price following a sharp post-listing pullback.