Xi asks Trump if U.S. and China can avoid 'Thucydides Trap' at high-stakes summit

BEIJING — U.S. President Donald Trump met his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Beijing on Thursday morning, kickstarting a high-stakes summit that is expected to cover trade, tariffs, Taiwan and Iran, and runs through Friday.

The relationship between the two countries is going to be “better than ever before,” Trump told Xi in his opening remarks, according to official broadcast footage. Trump, who also visited China in 2017 in his first term, said the two leaders have known each other personally for longer than any other U.S. or Chinese president.

Speaking just ahead of Trump, Xi noted the global attention on the meeting, and said a major question for the two countries was whether they could avoid the “Thucydides Trap,” according to an official English translation of his remarks broadcast by CCTV.

The Thucydides Trap refers to how tensions historically between a rising and ruling power have often resulted in a war. Graham Allison, the Harvard professor who popularized the concept, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” that he expects the trade truce Trump and Xi reached at their meeting in South Korea last fall will become a formal agreement.

Xi also said that Taiwan was the most important issue for U.S.-China relations, and if not handled well it would push the bilateral relationship to a “dangerous” place, according to state media. Beijing considers Taiwan, a democratically self-ruled island, part of its territory. The island’s ruling party rejects that claim.

In addition to posing the rhetorical question of whether the U.S. and China could avoid the Thucydides Trap, Xi asked if the two countries could meet major challenges together for global stability, and work for “a brighter future” for humanity. That’s according to the official CCTV broadcast of his opening remarks.

Thursday morning’s meeting was just the start of a packed schedule. Trump is expected to visit the Temple of Heaven, a historic landmark, in the afternoon, and attend a state banquet in the evening. The two leaders are set to have multiple discussions through midday Friday.

The China trip is the first by a sitting U.S. president in nearly a decade. Much has changed since, including an escalation in trade tensions and U.S. restrictions on Chinese technology.

“China comes into this meeting far more confident than in 2017, when it feared even a small rise in U.S. tariffs. In the last year, Xi has been able to push back and neutralize much of Trump’s actions,” said Scott Kennedy, senior adviser and trustee chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

China was the first major economy to retaliate against Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs in April 2025.

“Although expectations are low and no grand bargain is likely, the welcoming ceremony and initial remarks at the opening session highlight how truly consequential this relationship is for the world,” Kennedy said. “That’s why everyone is paying close attention and waiting to find out what they discuss and decide on issues of commerce and security.”

Xi is expected to reciprocate Trump’s trip with a visit to the U.S. The two leaders could also meet alongside APEC and G20 events in China and the U.S. late in the year.

Earlier on Thursday, Xi walked down the stairs of the Great Hall of the People in Beijing to shake hands with Trump, according to official broadcast footage. The U.S. president first shook hands with Chinese officials, followed by Xi greeting the U.S. delegation.

China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi and Zheng Shanjie, head of the economic planning agency, were among the Chinese representatives, the footage showed.

The U.S. contingent included Secretary of State Marco Rubio as well as business executives such as Tesla‘s Elon Musk, Apple‘s Tim Cook and Nvidia‘s Jensen Huang. Images of the initial Xi-Trump meeting also showed U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and his Chinese counterpart Dong Jun were also present.