Brien Lundin: Gold, Silver Waiting for Next Leg, What’s the Catalyst?
The gold price declined from its recent all-time highs this week, sinking to nearly US$4,000 per ounce and recording its biggest one-day decline in more than 12 years.
Silver took a similar hit, slipping back below the US$50 per ounce level.
The drops have been attributed to factors like a stronger US dollar and lower US-China tensions, as well as profit taking, potentially from traders who are new to the market.
Many experts have been anticipating a correction for the metals — their latest rise has been quick, and no asset can go straight up forever.
However, there’s also a broad consensus that gold has entered a new phase. For example, Patrick Tuohy of Goldstrom believes gold won’t fall below US$3,000 again.
Here’s what Tuohy said:
“Is this a short-term phenomenon that’s going to have some some dynamics that are going to turn it on its head and it reverses 50, 60 percent? I don’t believe that is the case. I think within our group … the consensus is that it’s unlikely that we’ll see gold below US$3,000 again in our lifetimes. So let’s say that that’s the floor. That’s a fairly significant move from where we were two years ago. So that’s comfortable.”
Next week, all eyes will be on the US Federal Reserve, which is set to meet from October 28 to 29. CME Group’s (NASDAQ:CME) FedWatch tool shows strong expectations for another interest rate cut.
While the release of US government data has been affected by the ongoing shutdown, September consumer price index numbers were released on Friday (October 24).
The report was the first major piece of federal economic data to come out since the shutdown began, and it has confirmed expectations of another rate reduction.
Bullet briefing — What’s next for gold and silver?
Gold and silver prices perked up to end the week, rising to the US$4,100 and US$48.60 levels, respectively. But with the metals still off from their all-time highs, investors are wondering what’s next.
Opinions vary, but I’ve pulled together a couple of quotes that illustrate what I’m hearing.
First is Ed Steer of Ed Steer’s Gold and Silver Digest. He’s well known for his commentary on the precious metals space, and he weighed in on what’s next for silver, saying that today really is different compared to the other times silver rose to the US$50 level.
Here’s how he explained it:
“It’s irrelevant what the price is today. You look at the big picture, and look at the fact that the BRICS+ have become an absolutely awesome juggernaut, and it’s absolutely unstoppable. And as we shift from the west to the east, as this continues economically, financially, it’s impossible to say where this is going to end up.
“But what we’re living right now is we’re living through a major, major shift in financial power, from one area of the world to another, and we’re going to be — they’re going to be writing about this 1,000 years from now. So we’re living through history.”
Next we have Don…
